As Communications Director, What’s Your Next Step for the Democrats? Or Republicans?

Doug Downs (00:04):

I want you to imagine you're the new PR leader for either the Democrats or the Republicans. That remarkable debate night is now a couple weeks old. For the Democrats, you're obviously in crisis mode with an urgency to repair reputation. The November election is coming way too fast for the Republicans. This is a golden opportunity and you need to make the time leading up to November, which can't happen fast enough, count for all it's worth, regardless of what team you're on. This clip from the Netflix series, house of Cards pretty much sums up the narrative you might need to push

Claire Underwood (00:43):

We can't fight everything off one by one, Francis, but if we make this, we make it work for us.

Frank Underwood (01:01):

Create chaos

Claire Underwood (01:04):

More than chaos.

Frank Underwood (01:08):

War.

Claire Underwood (01:11):

Fear.

Frank Underwood (01:14):

Fear,

(01:17):

Brutal.

(01:21):

Total.

Claire Underwood (01:24):

I'm done trying to win over people's hearts.

(01:24):

Frank Underwood (01:29):

Let's Attack their heart.

Claire Underwood (01:32):

We can work with fear.

Frank Underwood (01:36):

Yes, we can.

Claire Underwood (01:41):

You should put on a fresh suit,

Frank Underwood (01:47):

The navy blue.

Claire Underwood (01:50):

Yes, the navy blue.

Doug Downs (01:54):

Today on Stories and Strategies, fear factor. If you were driving strategy for either party, what would you do now to win the race?

(02:21):

My name is Doug Downs, a special thank you off the top of this episode. We've received a great review on Apple podcasts in Australia. The author is nickname 1111 8888 99909. I get it. Some folks just want to be anonymous. I completely respect that. They gave us a five star rating and said questions that invite story sharing are the heart of great conversation. And they do this again and again on this podcast, but not just stories for story sake. These are compelling, relevant, and revealing stories that help us get a deeper understanding of the guest, the topic, and ourselves. Great work. Thank you. That is an amazing review and you get a hundred percent what we're trying to do on the podcast, so I really appreciate it. My guest this week is Janet Brown joining today from Calgary. Hey, Janet.

Janet Brown (03:15):

Hey, how are you?

Doug Downs (03:16):

Good. We're in like 33 degrees. This is the heat wave 33 is like 90 ish, getting close to 90 in Fahrenheit. So we're in the heat wave here in Calgary. Now, this

Janet Brown (03:27):

Is really hot for us, but yeah, as we like to say, it's a dry hot, so it's a little more bearable than other voices hot.

Doug Downs (03:33):

Yeah, speaking of feeling the heat, we'll get to Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a couple of minutes. Janet, you have more than 30 years experience in polling and market research working with all levels of government and the private sector. You have extensive research in both quantitative and qualitative research, having designed hundreds of custom research projects. You are a pollster here in Alberta, Canada, so no political affiliations in the United States, which is our deliberate approach here, no horse in the race. Together with trend research, you conducted the most accurate publicly released polls during both the 2019 and 2023 provincial elections here in Alberta. You are a frequent guest lecturer at numerous universities and have a BA with honors in political science from Wilfred Laurier University in Waterloo, out in Ontario. And I guess I should say right off the top, neither of us, either one of us has any political affiliation in the us nor do we hold any cards of any kind. We don't have a vote either. So nowhere in this episode is either one of us suggesting how an American should or should not vote. This is meant to be an objective outside look at the inside from a communications strategy perspective and looking at both the Democrats and the Republicans and all that being said, holy crap, what a debate. That was amazing.

Janet Brown (05:02):

I know it's like watching the Stanley Cup when there's no Canadian teams in the playoffs, right? You're just, you have to watch it. You just feel like you're obligated to watch it, but your jaw is just, you just don't know what to make of it. You don't know who to root for.

Doug Downs (05:16):

When you were watching the debate, I don't know you well enough that I would just text you and say, Hey, Janet, what'd you think? But I did send you a note on I think it was X, and said, just wondering what you're making of this. It seemed kind of disastrous as it was unfolding, and you sort of echoed those thoughts at the time.

Janet Brown (05:37):

In hindsight, I think I was a little bit traumatized. A lot of us have dealt with elderly parents, whether they have dementia or not, and one of the things that you sort of do as your parents get older is you try and help them preserve their dignity. And so to see somebody with the political history that Biden had, to see him suffering so greatly on the national stage, it was traumatizing to me because I'm going to get a little cleed because I know what it's like when you get to a point in your life where you do have to make those hard decisions about what is facing you in the future.

Doug Downs (06:14):

And if you are a Democrat, losing in the moment to someone like Donald Trump just does not sit very well. So it's been a few weeks. I know part of the democratic message has been, he had a bad night, he had a cold, he functions better in the daytime. The debate was at night. But I want you to imagine that you are now leading communication strategy for the Democrats. What do you do?

Janet Brown (06:38):

So one of the things I really believe is I think politics is a lot like monopoly. And what I mean by that is when you're out of money and you're out of properties to sell, you are out of the game. There is really no mechanism in place to get rid of Biden, short of him deciding too that he needs to leave. But there is one mechanism that not a lot of people are talking about, and that's the money when the donations dry up, when he cannot afford to run. So I think right now this whole thing is in the hands of the donors. So I always think about you've got different audiences when you're running an election campaign. So think of it as a pyramid. At the very top of the pyramid are your big donors. They're the ones that guarantee you can run a successful election campaign.

(07:24):

And then just below them, I would call your key allies. These are the senators, these are the congressmen, these are the governors, other key Democrats who it's really important that they're there promoting you a message if you're going to win. That's the next audience. Below them is your core base. These are the people who are going to door knock for you, put stuff out on social media, put up a lawn sign, you got to make sure they're okay. And then the final audience would be at the bottom of the pyramid is swing voters. The Democrats have such a crisis right now. Forget about the bottom of the pyramid. They've got to focus on the top of the pyramid. So if I'm advising the Democrats right now, I am focused on exclusively on keeping those donors in the tent and to a lesser extent, keeping the key allies in the tent.

Doug Downs (08:15):

So what you're seeing right there is so interesting because I was going to say, I haven't seen photo ops of him running up to the podium or running down a ramp or riding his bike, and whoa, they missed an opportunity. But what you're saying is really the strategy shouldn't be on that. It should be on behind closed doors, so to speak, with those key donors working the phones, working email, that kind of thing.

Janet Brown (08:40):

I think they're just trying to, trying to recover from the debate and they're just trying to hang onto the nomination. So I would say there is no nomination. There is no campaign if there's not money to fund that campaign. So I think he's got to have a lot of private meetings with donors, and he's doing that meetings with donors, meetings with other key Democrats. He has to keep, got to keep the wheels on the bus going into the Democratic convention in August,

Doug Downs (09:14):

And meetings with donors results in more ad revenue, more ads, and that's how you convince the mass populace and maybe even some of those swing voters.

Janet Brown (09:24):

That's how you try. That's how you try. That's how you and convince them. Yeah. Yeah.

Doug Downs (09:30):

Okay. Any thoughts on if you have the money, if it works with the key donors, any thoughts on what your main narrative would be with those ads?

Janet Brown (09:40):

So I think if they can get through the next couple of weeks, and I know people may listen to this podcast at different times, but from when we're recording today, there's a few key milestones coming up. One is the Republican convention is next week by our time we're

Doug Downs (09:54):

Recording on Thursday just

Janet Brown (09:55):

For everyone. Yeah, we're Thursday, July 11th. So the 15th is when the Republican convention starts, and then you've got the Democratic convention. So the Democrats have had two weeks of crisis, just crisis communications. They'll probably have another week of crisis communications, and then if at the end of this period Biden is still their candidate, then I think they just have to go all in on that and they have to. And really they have to focus on a fear message. We don't want Trump. I think it's a risky message. I think it's far from a certainty that will work, but it's like, yes, our guy's got all this deficiencies, but he's still better than the other guy. I have noticed Democrats trying to promote this idea of, well, he's part of the team, don't worry about him because there's a bigger team behind him. I think that's a bad strategy because what that makes me wonder is, well, if this is the best guy your team has to put forward, I wonder about the rest of your team. So I think they're trying this team approach. I don't think it's very effective. I just think they have to strike a huge contrast between themselves and the Republicans

Doug Downs (11:11):

And the presidents like the CEO, they are the personality and the brand of the corporation in this instance, the corporation being the United States of America.

Janet Brown (11:21):

And one of the key criticisms of Biden is even if you accept the fact that he had a bad night, I heard many people make the observation that if I was investing in a company and he was the CEO, I would expect the board of directors to get him to resign. So I'm investing in this company and the board of directors isn't asking him to resign. Why do I keep my money with this company

Doug Downs (11:45):

Just before I swing over to the next half of this? And what would you do if you were leading the Republican strategically? One more question from the Democrat perspective, this seems to me a failure of those closest to the President to sufficiently warn him that he should not take the stage in that debate, which is a huge move. I get that, but it seems like a failure of those closest to them is almost every corporation I've ever worked for. They're so protective of the money they make. They don't tell the CEO what they really need to hear.

Janet Brown (12:18):

Well, it's worse than that because it was my impression that the Democrats asked for this debate. We've never had a US presidential debate this early in the process. They asked for it. So did they ask for it, hubris and whatever, or I don't know. I don't know. Maybe in a couple months time, we'll find out that there were a few people around the president who were questioning him and thought, let's get it out there. Let's get it out there, and let's see, American people decide. It still stymies me that the Democrats asked for this debate when it wasn't necessary at that time.

Doug Downs (12:56):

Okay, let's imagine you're leading the Republicans from a comms strategy standpoint, it actually feels trickier to me because you can't just rub salt in the wound. Look, he's too old because a huge part of the Republican base is Boomer plus, right?

Janet Brown (13:17):

And you have a candidate that loves doing the salt thing, right? Oh, yes, he does. So I think there's lots. I think that the Republicans have lots of runway right now. You just have a candidate that will just want to sort of elbows up. So like I said, the convention's going to start on Monday, and some people will listen to this podcast after. So you can see if I'm right or not. But here's the Republican convention that I have dreamed out in my mind and have no reason to believe it. So I think when people show up at the convention, you give them all those goofy hats. Remember those styrofoam hats that people used to wear in past conventions? Yeah. You give them thunders sticks, you give them lots of signs. Maybe you even have craft stations in the lobby where people can make their own handmade signs. Energy

Doug Downs (14:05):

Is what I'm hearing,

Janet Brown (14:06):

Energy. You fill the audience with as much energy as you possibly can, and when the TV networks cut to that debate, the hall is just rocking. Then you turn the lights out, then you make the hall completely dark. All you can see are the exit signs. Hush comes over the crowd. You start a video patriotic, melodic music, pastoral scenes of a rural America, and then you hear a calm, narrator's voice say, it's morning in America.

Announcer (14:42):

It's morning again in America Today, more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country's history.

Janet Brown (14:53):

In other words, you follow Ronald Reagan, 1980 to a T, you be the reassuring it's morning in America, this president is going to bring your Democratic nightmare to a close. I think that's Republican strategy. Then you have Trump come out and you whisper in his ear. Think of Ronald Reagan. Think of you're Ronald Reagan, you're Lincoln, you're Kennedy, be presidential. And when he stands up at the podium, the first words of his mouse should be my fellow Americans. He needs to be as presidential as he possibly can. He needs to give a speech that doesn't mention Biden wants, because he doesn't want Biden to be removed as Kennedy. He just talks about the Democrats right at the end of the speech, there's a little note, be nice to your wife and then his wife, because don't ignore your wife like you do. Greet his wife, have his family come. So this is what I think the Republicans need to do. They just need to say, look, in 1980, you just thought Ronald Reagan was this goofy actor. Well, Donald Trump is our new Ronald Reagan. He's going to bring his folkiness to the race. So that's the path I would take if I were a Republican strategist.

Doug Downs (16:17):

So the natural next question is, can Donald Trump pull that off? But let me add to it. I think he thinks can, I think he would buy into that idea and in his way try to appear presidential. There's going to be a huge grouping of people that are already voting Republican. It's all about convincing the ones that are maybe sort of still in the middle-ish.

Janet Brown (16:45):

Exactly. There are some people who are never going to vote for Trump, and there's no slick ad campaign or speech that are ever going to, but there's a whole bunch of other voters who are swing voters, and maybe they'll never vote for Trump, but they'll say, well, it wouldn't be the end of the world if I stay home and I don't vote. So you want to make sure the Republicans come out and vote, and you want to suppress the Democratic vote as much as possible. And this is where the fear thing comes in. If the Democrats are going to be running a fear campaign, the counter ballots to fear is reassurance. You may not like him, but he's not completely threatening.

Doug Downs (17:30):

What if the Republicans resorted to a fear campaign, though I agree, The Dems need to run on fear. The Republicans seem to want to sort of do the same thing. Should they though, or I think from what you're saying is they should not. Well,

Janet Brown (17:45):

I think it'd be the natural impulse of Trump to run on a fear campaign to watch him over the last couple of weeks since the debate. I mean, I was amazed watching Biden during the debate, but I was amazed at Trump and how lowkey Trump was. I think quite frankly, he was as surprised as the rest of us were. And he was just kind of standing there with voting going, is this really happening? And I think he was prepared to fight back, and then we had nothing thrown at him that he didn't have to fight back on. He stayed quiet. And then what's he been doing over the last couple of weeks? He's been golfing, he's been at controlled events. They've really sort of kept him under control. And any video footage we have of the president being outrageous was stuff that was taken when he didn't realize he was being filmed. So I think it's his natural inclination to be bombastic, but he seems to have people around him who have got him to understand this is not the time to be bombastic.

Doug Downs (18:44):

Okay. So let's imagine it unfolds as you've described, but you and I have not seen the Biden News conference that he's holding Thursday evening slash late afternoon. I'm assuming he stays on the Republican convention starting Monday. Then the Democratic Convention. What would be your strategy really high level at the Democratic Convention, and then at what point do you decide as the Democrats, whether you want or don't want a second debate?

Janet Brown (19:13):

So I don't know what's going to happen on Thursday, and I've got to the point with American politics that I won't be surprised no matter what happens, but I'm not expecting him to resign on Thursday. And that's because the Republican convention starts on Monday, and if he resigns on Thursday, all the national media is going to be at the Republican Convention. You'll just have a whole week of what do the Republicans think about Biden? Stepping Aside

Doug Downs (19:37):

Gives them the narrative.

Janet Brown (19:38):

So even if the decision internally has been made to replace Biden, I think they wait until after the convention and until they make that final decision. What else are they going to say other than He's our guy. He's sticking around. So I'm expecting Thursday to be He's our guy. He's sticking around. And then I think once we get out of the Republic Convention, then we'll know for sure what the Democrats are thinking because the next window of opportunity is their own convention. So when the Republican convention is over, if they are still sticking to this come hell or high water, he's our guy strategy, then he's the guy. Okay, so then if he's the guy, what do you do with the Democratic Convention? Well, the president has to come out and address the audience. We see that Biden does okay when he's reading off a teleprompter.

(20:29):

So I don't think you give him a long speech. I think you do everything you can to accommodate him and his limitations in terms of the time. If you need to buck convention about the time of day of the speech, you do that. You keep it really refined. But then I think you make the Democratic Convention about as much as possible about the party party. Like I said, I don't really like this team strategy too much because it just raises doubts about the whole team. But then I think you flood the stage with democratic governors and senators and you go all in on the team thing. And when I describe that sort of Morning in America video that I think the Republican Party should produce, then I think there's this sort of reper madness video kind of idea that I have for the Democrats. You're the evils of Trump, what the world could look like under Trump.

Doug Downs (21:32):

And then lastly, what are the indicators that might tell us that our strategies are working or not working? Is it just the polls? Because Lord knows you can't trust the polls, right? No, I'm kidding, but

Janet Brown (21:45):

Well, no, and I've made a name for myself because I've been able to do accurate polling in a place where it's difficult to do accurate polling. So pick the best polling firm you can and pay attention to what they're saying and ignore all of the rest. But in terms of the things other than polls, well, number one, money, money right here in Canada, we always pay very close attention to how much money the various political parties are raising. That's an important key indicator. So I would say money. And then funny enough, I also kind of have made a little bit of reputation for myself because in the past I've studied lawn signs and the effectiveness of lawn signs and not many people have. So I've gotten calls from the Washington Post and the New York Times because when they Google lawn signs, they get me and nobody else because really nobody else has been crazy enough to study it.

(22:40):

But we did a project once where we just tried to see if lawn signs were a good predictor of election outcome, and we did find they are a pretty good predictor. So I'd be looking at that low tech stuff. I would be looking at lawn signs. I would be looking at social media posts and stuff like that because Trump will appeal to an audience that may not be joining an online panel to answer surveys. They may be reluctant to sort of tell an out state pollster what they think. I always remember for me eight years ago when none of us thought Trump could win. Some of my friends who were down in the US visiting the big cities, they came home saying, no way Trump can win. My friends who visited rural areas came back and said, it's Trump, it's for sure. It's Trump. And so that's what I would be looking for is lawn signs. And when lawn signs show up, when my neighbors who are not political put up a lawn sign, that's how I know that there's a movement afoot.

Doug Downs (23:43):

Love this episode. Janet, thank you so much for this. Thank you very much. This was fun. If you'd like to send a message to my guest, Janet Brown, we've got her contact information in the show notes, Stories and Strategies of the co-production of JGR Communications and Stories and strategies, podcasts. If you'd like this episode, please leave a rating, possibly a review. Thank you as always, to our producer Emily Page. And lastly, do us a favor forward this episode to one friend. Thanks for listening.